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WJCC redistricting consultant shows forecast, 27 projects and concentration of new housing in Stonehouse
Summary
Consultant MGT outlined resident-based enrollment forecasting and mapping tools, citing 27 active housing projects totaling over 2,000 units (64% in Stonehouse attendance area); survey results show 81% staff and 48% family prior awareness of redistricting.
The Williamsburg-James City County School Board received a detailed redistricting update from consultant MGT and district staff explaining the data-driven process that will guide boundary changes expected in 2026.
Marcy Horner (MGT project manager) described the forecasting methodology used to create resident-based enrollment projections: geocoded student data, local births and capture rates, cohort survival (mobility) rates, and student-yield factors derived from parcel‑level development research and on‑the‑ground counts. Horner said the team identified 27 active residential projects affecting eight elementary attendance areas and more than 2,000 units; 64% of the new housing units in the forecast are in the Stonehouse Elementary attendance area and 44% are single‑family detached homes.
Consultant Cara Wall summarized survey results (Nov. 7–30): 81% of staff respondents had prior awareness of redistricting; 48% of family respondents did. Families prioritized school and teacher quality; staff emphasized small class sizes and staff caseloads; students rated attending the same school as friends highest. Wall and Horner presented draft guiding principles — minimize impact, balance utilization, and consider feeder patterns — and recommended forming a steering committee and broad community outreach (a mailed notice to every household is planned).
Board members asked about transportation impacts, how many students might move under scenarios, and the extent to which elementary-only boundary changes could create downstream middle- and high-school impacts. Administration replied that the next iterative scenario work this winter and spring will quantify numbers of students affected and explore tradeoffs among guiding principles. The board scheduled follow-up work sessions and community engagement into early 2026.
