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District data analyst: PSSA and screener trends show cohort effects, district sees gains in early grades
Summary
Tom Barnes presented multi‑year results showing statewide declines from 2024 to 2025, cohort effects that explain some grade‑level swings, strong K‑2 gains on DIBELS, rising AP participation and local improvements in some indicators; he urged aligning assessments to instruction.
Tom Barnes, the district's data analyst for student achievement, delivered an extended data briefing focused on how local screeners, diagnostic assessments and state tests relate.
Barnes said state scores showed a small overall decline in 2025 and noted the common "cohort effect" that causes year‑to‑year swings at particular grade levels. He warned against overinterpreting single‑year changes and stressed the value of looking at multiple measures. "My philosophy is always test what you teach," Barnes said, arguing district assessment choices should directly support instruction.
Barnes presented DIBELS (beginning/middle/end-of-year) data showing sizable gains within kindergarten and first grade administrations and explained that early‑literacy screeners can be strong indicators of skill acquisition even if they lose predictive power for higher grades. He described correlation analyses comparing local screeners and CDTs to PSSA results and said some beginning‑of‑year measures were the better predictors of later outcomes in their analyses.
He also reported increases in AP participation at Council Rock North and South (examples: North exams rose from 760 to 944; South from 716 to 816) and showed National Merit recognition comparisons. On math, Barnes described a common downward trend across grades and noted the district is reviewing interventions and schedule variables, such as departmentalization in sixth grade, to understand where instruction can be strengthened.
Board members used the presentation to ask about the purpose of repeated screening (DIBELS, Acadience, CDTs), whether assessments could be pruned for proficient/advanced students, and how data is shared with families. Barnes and administrators said they are assessing which screeners remain high value for which cohorts and will work with principals and teachers to align assessment windows and use results for targeted instruction.
The committee did not vote on assessment policy; Barnes said he will continue building building‑level reports and trend analyses to inform curriculum alignment and intervention choices.
