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Advisory committee: recent breach flows drove large spring salt export; salinity likely safe this winter but requires monitoring
Summary
Committee data show a large salt export from the South Arm in spring 2024 correlated with stronger flows through both the new causeway breach and the West Breach. Presenters said current salt mass and modeled scenarios indicate salinity is likely within ecological targets this winter, but members urged higher‑resolution monitoring and contingency modeling.
The Salinity Advisory Committee heard detailed data showing a steep export of salt from the South Arm in spring 2024 and discussed what that means for managing the causeway breaches and long‑term salinity targets.
Presenters described October baseline conditions and a range of modeled futures. “Our October volume‑weighted concentration was about 122 grams per liter,” a presenter told the committee, and models using 2002–2022 climate data produced warm‑dry, average, and wet‑cool scenario ranges. The presenters said a large calculated salt export occurred between April and October 2024 and that the timing of that export correlates closely with increased discharge through both the new breach and the West Breach.
Phil, a presenter…
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