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Topeka Public Schools projects steady enrollment decline after 2024–25 drop of 150 students
Summary
District demographer Dr. Kipp reported the October count at 12,854 students — a drop of about 150 from last year — and projected a further gradual decline to 2028 driven by lower birth rates, demographic shifts and some out-migration.
Topeka Public Schools officials reported a decline in student enrollment at the district’s October count, and projected a slow, steady decrease through 2028.
Dr. Kipp presented district data showing the September 20 count at 12,854 students, a loss of about 150 students since the prior count. Projecting forward, he estimated declines of roughly 50 students the first year, 22 the next, and about 78 by 2028 — a total further loss near 150 students over three years.
The presenter cited multiple drivers: lower birth rates and fertility trends nationally, an aging local population, and localized out-migration. "We're not really losing people; they're just getting older," he said, and added anecdotal pockets where families from Venezuela and Central American nations had left the area. He noted the district’s Hispanic share fell about one percentage point while the multiracial category rose by a similar amount.
On subgroup data, Dr. Kipp said the share of students with individualized education programs (IEPs) remained relatively stable at about 22–23 percent, while English learner (EL) counts decreased about 0.7 percentage points. He highlighted chronic absenteeism improvements: the district rate is trending down toward the state average (about 19 percent), which he called an important correlate of academic success.
Board members pressed on causes and implications. One member asked whether the district is seeing both fertility-driven declines and student disappearance to other states or schooling options; Dr. Kipp said both trends were occurring in parallel.
The board noted that a persistent enrollment decline has direct implications for future budgeting, staffing needs and facility planning; staff flagged the start of facilities and strategic planning work to align district size with resources.
The district will use these enrollment projections in forthcoming budget and staffing plans and said it will continue outreach and recruitment efforts, including partnerships with local teacher-preparation programs.
