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OCA: MEPS survey finds modest out-of-pocket behavioral‑health spending but data too noisy for firm conclusions

Office of Health Care Affordability board · December 31, 2025
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Summary

Office of Health Care Affordability staff and Mathematica presented state‑level estimates showing out‑of‑plan behavioral‑health spending pooled at about 10% of total behavioral‑health dollars, but analysts cautioned that small sample sizes and large confidence intervals make trend conclusions unreliable.

Office of Health Care Affordability staff on Wednesday presented new estimates of behavioral‑health spending paid entirely out of pocket in California and urged caution in interpreting the results.

Mathematica researchers used the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) household component for 2019–2022 to identify behavioral‑health events and to classify expenses as “out of plan” when they were paid entirely by the respondent or occurred after an individual deductible was met. Their pooled estimate across the four years put out‑of‑plan behavioral‑health spending at roughly 10% of total behavioral‑health expenditures.

The office and its analysts repeatedly…

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