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County planning consultant presents data analysis, recommends focusing growth near municipalities
Summary
North Florida Professional Services presented the county’s Evaluation and Appraisal data analysis and population projections and recommended using medium/medium‑high projections for planning, encouraging denser growth near McClenny and Glen St. Mary and targeting nonresidential growth to existing employment nodes.
Justin Tabor, senior planner with North Florida Professional Services, told the board the county’s data analysis for the Evaluation and Appraisal Report shows steady population growth since 2000 with a modest dip following 2020. Using state demographic projections, the consultant presented medium, medium‑high and high scenarios and recommended basing the comprehensive plan on the statutorily required median (medium) projection while demonstrating capacity to accommodate medium‑high growth.
Key findings included a higher homeownership rate (83.2%) and somewhat lower median household income than the state average. Tabor recommended encouraging nonresidential growth near existing employment nodes (I‑10/US‑90 corridors), promoting residential density near municipalities that have water and sewer service to reduce sprawl, and considering a focused urban growth or development boundary for efficient infrastructure provision. He reminded the board that Chapter 163, Part II, Florida Statutes requires planning for 10‑ and 20‑year horizons and that the county has adequate land supply to meet the medium and medium‑high scenarios.
Commissioners discussed whether to adopt the medium projection (the statutory minimum) versus higher scenarios; several said the medium projection was most realistic and urged consistent assumptions for impact fees and other planning decisions. The consultant said the draft data analysis will underpin upcoming workshops and provide the baseline for comp‑plan amendments to be completed by the statutory deadline.
