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Saint Croix County housing study: county needs 4,300—6,000 new units by 2050 as affordability worsens
Summary
An EDC presentation to the county board says population growth, an aging population and steep price increases have left vacancy rates near zero and create a need for 4,300—6,000 new housing units by 2050; the study points to construction costs and out-of-state buyers as key drivers.
Melissa Meschke, executive director of the Saint Croix Economic Development Corporation, told the County Board on Dec. 2 that a recently completed housing study estimates a net need of 4,300 to 4,600 new housing units in Saint Croix County by 2050. "So 4,300 to 4,600 new units by 2050," Meschke said, summarizing the long-term unit gap.
The study, a roughly 300-page report funded by municipalities and county partners, finds the county's population is projected to keep growing while aging: the 65-and-older group is projected to increase about 86% by 2050 and average household size is expected to decline toward roughly 2.4 persons per household. The study uses a formal affordability definition: households spending more than 30% of income on housing costs are considered housing-cost-burdened.
Meschke highlighted recent price changes: the median sale price for homes rose about 35% from 2020 to 2024 and median rents for two-bedroom units rose roughly 34% in the same period. Rental vacancy in 2023 was reported at 1.4% (a healthy vacancy is often considered 5.5% to 7%), and owner vacancy was essentially zero, meaning homes that enter the market sell quickly. "There's a lack of available housing stock," Meschke said.
During questions, supervisors pushed on causes and remedies. Supervisor Birney asked whether the study examined long-term shifts from single-family to multifamily construction; Meschke said higher construction and land costs (she cited a roughly 40% increase in build costs over recent years) and buyer expectations for larger homes are major drivers. Supervisor Van Summerin asked who is buying newly built units; Meschke said many purchases are by 55-plus buyers relocating from Minnesota, often with cash offers that out-compete local workforce buyers.
The study recommends county-level initiatives, municipal actions, and formation of a Saint Croix County Housing Task Force to be managed by the EDC. Meschke also highlighted policy tools such as deed restrictions for starter-home projects and use of tax increment financing (TIF) to support multifamily developments. She cautioned that deed restrictions preserve affordability only for a limited period and that long-term affordability remains a challenge.
The study and supporting materials (including municipal snapshots and an hour-long presentation) are posted on the EDC website at saintcroixedc.com/housing-study. The board did not take a formal vote on policy actions during the meeting; supervisors asked staff and the EDC to continue outreach and exploration of implementation options.
