Ellen Dinsmore, senior research associate in the Office of Research and Data at the United States Sentencing Commission, presented data on Dec. 12, 2025 after the Commission voted to publish proposed amendments to the U.S. Sentencing Guidelines, including inflationary adjustments to monetary tables and changes to the Primary Economic Crime Guideline, section 2B1.1.

The Commission's first proposed change would adjust every monetary table and value in the guidelines for inflation. "The proposed amendment uses a specific multiplier derived directly from the consumer price index, 1.36," Dinsmore said, and it would round amounts using rules extrapolated from section 5(a) of the Federal Civil Penalties Inflation Adjustment Act of 1990 — the same methodology the Commission used in 2015.

Using Fiscal Year 2024 sentencing data, the Commission estimated how the inflationary adjustment would shift individuals across the 2B1.1 loss-table categories. For example, Dinsmore said raising the lowest threshold from $6,500 to $9,000 would leave 45 individuals' offense levels unchanged while 58 individuals would move from a 2-level increase to no increase. The presentation noted a 2-level decrease on the sentencing table is generally associated with roughly a 25% reduction in the guideline range.

The Commission modeled effects across other guidelines as well. Dinsmore said courts sentenced 451 individuals using the tax table (section 2T4.1) in FY2024 and that adjusting that table for inflation would affect about 34% of them (a 2-level reduction for impacted persons). For robbery (section 2B3.1), she reported 1,291 individuals sentenced and an estimated 4% impacted (1-level reduction); for burglary (section 2B2.1), 52 individuals with an estimated 8% impacted; and for antitrust-related sentencing the presentation showed 8 individuals with an estimated 13% impacted.

Part A of the proposed amendment would restructure the 2B1.1 loss table to simplify application and reduce court fact-finding by widening ranges and reducing the number of levels. Under the restructured table the presentation listed cutoff points (no increase for $15,000 or less; increases above $15,000, $95,000, $250,000, $1,500,000, $9,500,000, $65,000,000, and $250,000,000). Dinsmore said the Commission's model indicates 16% of the 3,229 individuals sentenced under the 18 Chapter 2 guidelines that cite the 2B1.1 loss table would be impacted by the restructuring (moving to an adjacent lower category) and 84% would remain in their existing category.

The Commission also modeled the combined effect of the inflationary adjustment and the restructured table. Dinsmore summarized: "Overall, 66 percent of individuals sentenced under section 2B1.1 in fiscal year 2024 would have an impacted offense level resulting from the inflationary adjustment and restructuring of the loss table. 34% of individuals would not have an impacted offense level. Overall, 46% of individuals would have an offense level decrease of 2 levels, and 20% of individuals would have an offense level decrease of 4 levels." These are modeled estimates the Commission submitted for public review and comment.

Part B would add specific-offense-characteristic changes. The proposal would create a new enhancement at section 2B1.1 (presented as B3) that would provide a 2-, 3- or 4-level enhancement for offenses that result in substantial non-economic harm to one or more victims, with listed examples including physical harm, psychological or emotional trauma, reputational or credit harm, and invasion of privacy. Dinsmore said the Commission reviewed 1,197 case files for FY2023 that included victim information, recording harm data for 7,309 victims; reported rates in those files included death and certain severe harms at less than 1%, bodily injury about 1%, psychological/emotional harm about 4%, and reputational harm about 4% (other categories reported at lower rates or aggregated as "other").

The presentation also proposed amending the sophisticated-means enhancement at section 2B1.1(b)(10) to define "sophisticated means" as committing or concealing an offense with greater complexity than typical and to provide guidance for courts. Dinsmore reported courts applied the sophisticated-means enhancement to 20% of individuals sentenced under section 2B1.1 in FY2024; among the 977 individuals who received that enhancement, the presentation attributed roughly 10% to relocation of a scheme (subsection A), 16% to substantial parts of a scheme occurring from outside the United States (subsection B), and 74% to other conduct described in subsection C.

The Commission is soliciting public comment on any or all of the proposed amendments, which it described as not mutually exclusive. Dinsmore closed the presentation by directing listeners to the Commission's website for more information and noting that comments may be submitted through the addresses shown; the public comment period concludes on 02/10/2026.

The presentation consisted of modeled impacts and policy choices the Commission invites the public and stakeholders to comment on; no change to the Guidelines takes effect until the Commission completes its rulemaking process and addresses public comments.