Patrick Bowen, principal of Bowen National Research, told the Florence City Council that the city faces both immediate rental shortages and a longer-term housing shortfall. "You are gonna need at least 500 new units over the next 5 years," Bowen said during a presentation of the consultant’s market-area analysis. He also summarized the study’s larger gap estimate as "about 6,000" units (the presenter referenced "6,016" on the study slides).

The study, commissioned by the council and presented to members and staff, analyzed demographic trends, housing supply and affordability across five submarkets that include the city and immediate surrounding areas. Bowen singled out South and West Florence as the primary growth areas and flagged seniors (age 75+) as a fast-growing household type that will increase demand for age‑appropriate housing and care facilities.

Why it matters: Council members pressed Bowen on how the mismatch between wages and housing costs affects Florence’s ability to retain workers and capture local spending. Bowen said the city’s workforce largely commutes in (the study maps roughly 32,000 commuters into the city), and many commuters earn enough to afford downtown amenities but take their income elsewhere.

The study detailed several supply-side constraints: low vacancy rates across housing types (Bowen cited a healthy market vacancy range of about 4%–6% and noted Florence’s market-rate vacancies often sit well below that), a small pool of available subsidized units, a tight for-sale inventory (the presentation listed roughly 198 homes available at the most recent sample), and relatively high land costs that drive new development prices upward.

Council members discussed policy levers. One member noted recent changes to the city’s accessory-dwelling rules and asked if that ordinance change appeared in Bowen’s data; Bowen said the survey predated the ordinance change and that only a small number of ADU approvals had appeared so far. Another councilmember raised state tax treatment of non-owner‑occupied units as a cost driver for rentals; Bowen agreed taxes and land costs can push rents higher and suggested density bonuses, down-payment assistance, housing trust funds, and public–private partnerships as tools the city could deploy.

City Manager (name not specified in the transcript) enumerated existing local programs that staff already uses: city-set-aside funding for down-payment assistance, acquisition of land, demolition to prepare sites, a local nonprofit named Building Florence Together, and use of Community Development Block Grant (CDBG) funds. The manager said the city also provides up to $25,000 in down-payment assistance in some developer partnerships and has been building houses directly to address need.

Bowen closed by urging ongoing effort: the study lists about 62 potential development sites, 75 potential development partners, and a set of recommendations including formation of a housing coalition or task force to coordinate action. "Don't let this thing die," Bowen said, encouraging the council to convert study findings into a sustained local program of work.

Next steps: Councilmembers signaled interest in follow-up work (developer outreach, potential incentives, and targeted programs for workforce and senior housing). Staff said materials (a written report and condensed PowerPoint) are available for council review.

Ending: The presentation concluded with general council agreement to pursue next steps and to consider the report’s recommendations as part of ongoing housing and planning work.