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Mesa Public Schools projects 2,400-student drop next year and a $13.7 million operating shortfall
Summary
District demographers told the Mesa Unified School District governing board the district expects a roughly 2,400-student decline for next year and longer-term erosion driven by demographics, charter growth and ESAs; staff translated that forecast into a preliminary FY27 M&O budget gap of about $13.7 million and outlined options to close it.
Mesa Unified School District officials told the governing board on Tuesday that enrollment declines are already large enough to have a measurable effect on next year’s operating budget.
In a study-session presentation, district demographer Glassmeyer said multiple projection models — including a long-range forecast from Applied Economics — put next year’s enrollment about 2,400 students below current levels. Glassmeyer described that as an estimate and emphasized variables such as housing construction, birth rates and cross‑district movement that can change the outlook.
Chief budget presenter John Moore explained how enrollment feeds the state funding formula and the district’s revenue control limit. Using the district’s current base ($403,000,000 cited in the…
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