Joint Fiscal Office: December 1 letter projects 11.9% average property-tax-bill increase; yields bill, one-time funds and reversions will shape final rates

Julia Richter, of the Joint Fiscal Office, told the Ways & Means committee that the office's December 1 forecast estimates statewide education spending growth of 5.8% and, under statutory modeling rules, an estimated 11.9% average increase in property-tax bills for the coming fiscal year.

The December 1 letter, Richter said, contains two parts: the mandated forecast JFO prepares in consensus with the Tax Department and Agency of Education, and a separate policy commentary from the Commissioner. "The estimate is that the average property tax bill would increase by 11.9% compared to FY '26," Richter said, noting that the forecast produces potential impacts and that final rates depend on later policy choices.

Why the difference between a 5.8% rise in education spending and an 11.9% average bill change? Richter and committee members explained several factors: prior-year one-time buys that lowered the base for comparison, statutory requirements to model use of education-fund surplus and reversions as uniform buy-downs, changes in…