Legislative staff told Clackamas County and city officials on Jan. 13 that federal tax changes commonly referenced as "HR 1" may create a substantial revenue shortfall for Oregon, complicating decisions in the short legislative session.

"I've heard anywhere from 300 to $700,000,000 in terms of a deficit," Daniel Mulkey, chief of staff to Representative Vanessa Hartman, said, describing the uncertainty staff are preparing for as they and agencies model cuts. Mulkey said offices are asking local jurisdictions to identify essential services so legislators can defend priorities to state agencies.

Daniel Brozian, legislative assistant for Representative Ricky Smith, listed two bills his office plans to file: codifying federal overtime and minimum-wage protections for domestic health care workers at the state level and adding oversight for a federal scholarship tax credit should the state opt in.

Representative Mark Gamba framed the budget problem in the context of the stateC2B4s kicker: "2 years ago, it kicked $5,600,000,000," he said, arguing that unpredictable revenue returns worsen mid-biennium cuts. Gamba is sponsoring the Revenue Forecast Modernization Act, which would require the state economist to report both a central 'kicker' number and a lower, worst-case forecast so the legislature can budget conservatively and use the delta for debt reduction or emergencies.

Officials and staff said they are also tracking specific program-level impacts: child welfare, early childhood services, mental-health supports and school funding were repeatedly named as high priorities to shield from cuts. Senator Niran Mislan and other delegation members called for coordinated local input to determine which services must be protected.

Next steps: Legislative staff asked municipal and county staff to communicate top local priorities and be prepared to meet with state agencies so the delegation can press for protections during budget negotiations.