Dinwiddie superintendent: enrollment dip could cost schools about $1 million in state revenue

The division’s finance staff told the Dinwiddie County School Board that current enrollment is about 100 students fewer than the ADM baseline used for budgeting, which produces an estimated state revenue shortfall of roughly $1,000,000 for the current year.

Finance staff said the division is absorbing the shortfall this year through vacant positions, many filled by long-term substitutes, and will monitor changes as January enrollment figures finalize. The superintendent and staff identified several FY27 budget drivers: Governor Youngkin’s preliminary budget proposal (including a 2% pay bonus that would be paid in June and requires local funding for the non-state share); an increase in the local composite index (reported in the meeting to have moved from 0.2978 to 0.3186), changes proposed to VRS rates that could lower employer contribution rates, and expanded one-time funds for school construction assistance.

Staff cautioned that the General Assembly’s action (budget adoption in April–May) will determine final state support and noted uncertainty about whether the governor’s proposed bonus and other items will be enacted. Board members raised compensation and minimum-wage pressures for support positions (including bus drivers) and noted the potential for neighboring districts to offer larger raises, which could affect recruitment and retention. The board scheduled a budget work session in the coming weeks to review scenarios, assumptions and local implications.

What happens next: A budget work session will provide detailed scenarios and staff said they will supply requested data about transportation pay scales and other compensation benchmarks prior to that meeting.