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Demographer tells South Madison board that enrollment changes hinge on housing, transfers and age structure
Summary
Dr. McKibben presented a population-based enrollment forecast, stressing that forecasts rely on assumptions (mortgage rates, transfers, housing additions) and projecting a modest net K–12 increase over the next decade if current trends hold.
Dr. McKibben told the South Madison board on Jan. 8 that the district’s near-term enrollment outlook depends less on past enrollment trends and more on population dynamics: mortgage rates, housing availability and the district’s age structure.
“These are forecasts, not projections,” Dr. McKibben said, framing the presentation around four key assumptions: mortgage-rate trajectories, interdistrict transfers and vouchers, new housing units (he used 50 new units…
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