CDOT presents greenhouse‑gas planning standard compliance analysis; staff proposes mitigation actions to meet 2040 target
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Summary
CDOT presented its non‑MPO greenhouse‑gas planning standard compliance analysis, modeling baseline and action scenarios and proposing mitigation measures — land‑use strategies, transit service increases (including Bustang fleet support), medium/heavy‑duty electrification and traffic operational improvements — to meet required reduction levels, noting a residual need of about 46,000 metric tons in 2040 addressed by the mitigation action plan.
CDOT staff presented the greenhouse‑gas planning standard report required under the rule (CCR 6 01/22) for non‑MPO areas and described modeling, assumptions and a mitigation action plan designed to meet reduction requirements.
Modeling approach and inputs: Eric Sabina (modeling lead) said CDOT used the statewide travel model paired with the EPA MOVES emissions model and updated inputs (state demographer population forecasts, EV penetration assumptions aligned to revenue forecasts, and a new statewide travel survey) to run baseline and action scenarios. Staff noted some parameters were modestly adjusted since the 2022 compliance exercise, including a slightly reduced EV penetration assumption that staff coordinated with the interagency consultation team.
Mitigation measures: the mitigation action plan groups measures into land‑use (supporting residential density and transit‑oriented development), transit strategies (increasing revenue service miles and maintaining Bustang service levels, and leveraging the Clean Transit Enterprise for EV buses), medium and heavy‑duty electrification, and traffic operational strategies (roundabouts, signal retiming) that improve flow and reduce idling.
Results and compliance: staff said the action scenario combined with mitigation actions demonstrates compliance in most horizon years but identified a residual need (about 46,000 metric tons of GHG mitigation) in 2040 that the mitigation action plan will address through the listed measures and tracking. CDOT noted it will publish annual mitigation action progress reports and that the technical results were verified by the Air Pollution Control Division (letter in the packet).
Why it matters: the analysis informs the 10‑year plan because project choices and investments (mobility hubs, Bustang fleet support, electrification) affect modeled emissions outcomes; commissioners asked for clarity on how land‑use measures will be tracked and whether non‑MPO local governments will opt‑in to state incentives or reporting mechanisms.
Next steps: staff will publish the report for Commission review and return with a resolution to accept the report prior to adoption of the 10‑year plan; they will provide annual tracking on mitigation measures and continue to refine model inputs.
