Demographers project continued enrollment decline for TTSD without more family‑oriented housing

Charles Reynerson of Flow Analytics presented Tigard‑Tualatin School District enrollment projections for 2026–27 and beyond, reporting a K–12 decline of roughly 380 students (about 3.4%) in the current year and forecasting continued pressure unless the housing market produces more family‑sized units.

Reynerson said regional population growth has slowed compared with the prior decade and that new development has generated fewer students than in the past — less than one student per three new single‑family homes and fewer for market‑rate multifamily. He noted several income‑restricted housing developments produce somewhat higher student yields (about 66 students per 100 two‑bedroom units), but that overall student generation rates remain low.

The demographer presented low, middle and high forecast scenarios. In a middle scenario, kindergarten remains below 700 for the next four years and projected district K–12 enrollment shows a one‑year decline next year of about 220 students and about 1,000 over a 10‑year horizon. The low forecast is steeper; the high forecast shows smaller declines.

Board members discussed policy options including in‑site preschool (transitional kindergarten) to make better use of buildings and noted that Kingston Terrace developments were newly included in some school forecasts. No immediate action was taken; the report was informational.