District projects enrollment decline and asks board to consider 160 open-enrollment seats for 2026–27

District enrollment staff presented the methodology and preliminary projections for the 2026–27 school year during a financial stability and efficiency workshop on Jan. 12. The process rolls current students up to the next grade and applies historical adjustments; staff said they typically use a five-year lookback and adjust for transition years (notably kindergarten and ninth grade).

Staff reported the district’s projected total enrollment decline of approximately 191 students for 2026–27, with most of that loss concentrated at the high school level (about 146 fewer students). The projection method includes an 11% bump for ninth grade and an 18% bump for kindergarten where historical transition effects occur; staff noted outlier years (for example COVID-era data) are reviewed and sometimes excluded from smoothing calculations.

Based on projected sections, staffing and a 92% class-capacity rule to reserve seats for incoming residents, staff said they will ask the board at the Jan. 26 meeting to approve 160 open-enrollment regular-education seats (and 0 special-education seats due to capacity constraints) and to approve 225 DLVA regular-education seats for grades 6–12. Last year the board approved 156 seats and 75 students accepted seats.

Board members raised questions about the composition and distribution of open-enrollment seats across schools, historical carryover of seats approved in prior years, and whether reducing target class sizes might be preferable to filling all available open-enrollment seats. Staff agreed to return with a school-by-school distribution of open-enrollment placements and to analyze trade-offs of marginal class-size changes.