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Enrollment preview: Arlington staff flag kindergarten decline and weigh conservative projections
Summary
District staff presented three enrollment projection methods showing divergent outcomes: an April rollup projecting a 51 FTE decline, a weighted historical average projecting a 12 FTE decline, and an OSPI cohort projection showing a 35 FTE increase; staff said kindergarten is the largest single-area of decline and that the board will consider a recommendation in the next meeting.
District staff on Jan. 14 provided an enrollment preview for the 2026–27 budget cycle that highlighted a probable decline in kindergarten enrollment and presented three projection methodologies the board could use for budgeting.
Brian Lewis, the district’s executive director of operations, explained the technical difference between annual average FTE (AAFTE) and simple headcount and said the district will use AAFTE for budgeting purposes. He summarized three projection methods: April rollup, weighted historical average, and OSPI…
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