Enrollment preview: Arlington staff flag kindergarten decline and weigh conservative projections
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Summary
District staff presented three enrollment projection methods showing divergent outcomes: an April rollup projecting a 51 FTE decline, a weighted historical average projecting a 12 FTE decline, and an OSPI cohort projection showing a 35 FTE increase; staff said kindergarten is the largest single-area of decline and that the board will consider a recommendation in the next meeting.
District staff on Jan. 14 provided an enrollment preview for the 2026–27 budget cycle that highlighted a probable decline in kindergarten enrollment and presented three projection methodologies the board could use for budgeting.
Brian Lewis, the district’s executive director of operations, explained the technical difference between annual average FTE (AAFTE) and simple headcount and said the district will use AAFTE for budgeting purposes. He summarized three projection methods: April rollup, weighted historical average, and OSPI cohort survival, and noted each method has different volatility and conservatism characteristics. “So from here forward in this presentation, we're gonna be referring to annual average FTE,” Lewis said.
Lewis provided method-specific estimates for basic education FTE: an April rollup projection that assumes students roll to the next grade would result in a 51 FTE decline; a weighted historical average would project a 12 FTE decline; and the cohort survival method would project a 35 FTE increase. By grade level, he said kindergarten showed the largest projected decline and that other grades show mixed shifts. Lewis said birth data, residential construction, mobility and choices such as Running Start or Open Doors influence how births translate into kindergarten five years later; the district uses Flow Analytics for demographic inputs.
Board members asked whether the district should adopt a more conservative enrollment assumption for budgeting to avoid mid-year shortfalls; Lewis said a recommendation will be brought to the next board meeting with school-level detail. The board also asked about a proposed residential development on East Hill and was told the project remains under consideration and would take substantial time to affect enrollment counts.
What the board will decide next Staff said they will return with school-level detail and a formal recommendation at the next meeting. The board will need to choose which projection methodology to rely on for the 2026–27 budget process; staff signaled they are leaning toward more conservative methods but will present a recommendation in the next packet.