San Mateo council backs education and outreach on quarter-cent sales tax after feasibility poll

San Mateo City Council members on Jan. 12 directed staff to begin education and outreach for a quarter-cent general sales tax measure for the November 2026 ballot after hearing results of a voter-feasibility survey conducted by True North Research.

"Based on these polling results, we do not see that a bond is feasible," Timothy McClarny, president of True North Research, told the council after presenting the firm's findings. McClarny said an initial ballot test showed 59% support for a $323,000,000 general obligation bond but noted the bond requires two-thirds support to pass. By contrast, the same initial testing showed about 53% support for a quarter-cent general sales tax, a level McClarny said is above the simple-majority threshold required for passage.

The presentation described the study's methods and scale: True North reported completing about 1,012 interviews with a stratified, clustered random sample of likely November voters in the city, using split samples to test bond versus sales-tax language and reporting margins of error of roughly ±3% for the full sample and ±4.3% for the split samples.

McClarny said support for the bond was sensitive to tax framing. When voters were shown the $30-per-$100,000 assessed-value rate embedded in the bond statement, support fell to the mid-40s; translating that same rate into an estimated median homeowner cost (about $225 per year) lifted support but not enough to reach the two-thirds requirement. After voters heard a mix of positive and negative arguments, McClarny said the bond cooled to about 54%, while the sales-tax option held near 56% in the simulated election environment.

"All of the sort of projects and services that you can fund with a sales tax were popular," McClarny said, explaining that many high-priority items identified by respondents'including streets, sewers and public safety'are fundable by a general sales tax but not by a bond.

Finance Director Abby Visser told the council that the city's adopted FY 2025-26 budget began with a roughly $12,000,000 structural shortfall and that a shortfall in state vehicle license fee (VLF) funding increased that gap to about $14,000,000. Visser said staff forecasts a continuing structural deficit in the range of $5 million to $7 million per year over a 10-year horizon and described work on an economic analysis and a multi-pronged financial sustainability plan.

Members of the public urged caution. Michael Reagan, a member of the public who spoke in person, criticized consultant costs and questioned the timing of asking voters for revenue, saying, "I think we're looking at almost $606,100,000,000 dollars to repay a bond." Dana Sahai, another commenter, said voters are already being asked for money and worried retail decline would undercut sales-tax revenue.

Council members asked detailed questions about the survey and fiscal projections, including whether the sample consisted of city residents likely to vote in a November election (True North confirmed it did), how county or regional sales-tax initiatives could preclude the city from using the remaining quarter-cent increment, and the limits of one-time grants or reserve use to close recurring budget gaps.

After discussion, a majority of council members voiced support for Option 1: directing staff to proceed with education and outreach on a quarter-cent general sales tax measure and to work with True North Research on tracking surveys and draft ballot language. Staff said it would report back with draft language and results of additional analysis, and that a return for final direction would likely be scheduled in July 2026.

The council's direction on Jan. 12 was not recorded as a formal binding vote; councilmembers expressed their preferences on the record and asked staff to take the next steps described above.