CFO: small enrollment decline and funding shifts create budget uncertainty; bonus proposal carries local match
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Summary
York County's CFO presented FY26-FY27 budget outlook: ADM projections drop by 33 students for FY26 and 18 for FY27, lottery funding shifts some programs, and a governor-proposed employee bonus would require roughly $700,000 in local matching funds, creating uncertainty for local budget planning.
Bill Bowen, York County School Division chief financial officer, briefed the board on the division's FY26 and FY27 budget outlook, identifying enrollment shifts, funding-source changes and specific areas of risk.
Bowen said average daily membership (ADM) projections informed the FY26 base: the division's budget used 13,051 students, but the governor's release reduced the current projection to 13,018 (a decline of 33 students); VDOE projects a further reduction of 18 students for FY27, a net decline of 51 against the existing budget. Bowen explained that the state's technical budget adjustments increase reliance on lottery-funded programs for some accounts, shifting costs among state funding streams.
On compensation, Bowen summarized a governor-proposed bonus program for FY26 that requires local certification by June 1 and includes a required local match estimated at nearly $700,000 for York County. He warned that division positions exceed SOQ minimums so the state's $1.2 million compensation figure would not fully cover local costs; whether the bonus can be used for purposes other than direct cash payments or whether prior raises qualify remains uncertain and may reduce the net bonus available to employees.
Bowen also described program-level impacts: at-risk funding per pupil decreased from approximately $1.93 to $1.82; special-education regional tuition declined because fewer students met thresholds for New Horizons placements; and K-3 primary class-size reduction funds expanded qualifying schools from two to seven, creating potential staffing and classroom space implications. He noted that the VRS pension-rate change (a Board of Trustees-recommended 2.1% reduction) is a material budget driver that alters state-local funding balances.
Bowen said staff will continue budget work through January and bring recommendations to the board in February after the General Assembly's crossover period clarifies the incoming administration's priorities.