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Zonda: UCPS Enrollment Flat; Housing Slowdown, Lower Yields Driving Projections

Union County Board of Education · January 14, 2026
AI-Generated Content: All content on this page was generated by AI to highlight key points from the meeting. For complete details and context, we recommend watching the full video. so we can fix them.

Summary

A demographer told the Union County Board of Education the district lost about 887 students last year and should expect relatively flat enrollment (~38,000) as housing starts and student yields decline; Zonda projected ~1,400 home closings this year and outlined high/low scenarios for growth.

Union County Public Schools staff and Zonda Demographics presented the fall 2025 enrollment and housing report at the board's January 2026 meeting, flagging lower housing activity and declining student 'yields' as the main factors tempering near-term enrollment growth.

"We've seen a decline in starts," Rocky Gardner of Zonda Demographics told the board, and said the firm expects roughly 1,400 home closings this year. Gardner explained that of the inventory counted for the report, about 1,155 units were finished but vacant or under construction, with…

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