Zonda: UCPS Enrollment Flat; Housing Slowdown, Lower Yields Driving Projections
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Summary
A demographer told the Union County Board of Education the district lost about 887 students last year and should expect relatively flat enrollment (~38,000) as housing starts and student yields decline; Zonda projected ~1,400 home closings this year and outlined high/low scenarios for growth.
Union County Public Schools staff and Zonda Demographics presented the fall 2025 enrollment and housing report at the board's January 2026 meeting, flagging lower housing activity and declining student 'yields' as the main factors tempering near-term enrollment growth.
"We've seen a decline in starts," Rocky Gardner of Zonda Demographics told the board, and said the firm expects roughly 1,400 home closings this year. Gardner explained that of the inventory counted for the report, about 1,155 units were finished but vacant or under construction, with around 670 units under construction and roughly 500 finished but unoccupied. He said that vacant developed lots and existing infrastructure are where near-term building will occur.
Gardner described 'yields'—students per home—and said newer multifamily product typically yields fewer students (about 0.25 students per unit), while older apartments and mobile home communities can yield as much as 0.75 students per unit. He reported the district lost about 887 students last year and that the cohort change (how each grade 'moves up' year to year) was only about 281 students in the current year, noting incoming kindergarten counts are about 1,000 smaller than outgoing 12th-grade counts, a key driver of net attrition.
Zonda presented high and low projection scenarios for the district: the low scenario assumes continued slowing of housing and lower yields; the high scenario allows modest growth (a possible approach to ~39,000 students in 10 years) but Gardner said the high path was unlikely. He noted his firm's target accuracy is about 1% overall and that this year's forecast came in at roughly 1.1% error.
Board members asked whether Zonda tracks total school-age population and about the source and meaning of 'lots to be built.' Gardner said Zonda does not have a reliable total 5–18 population estimate from ACS or other sources suitable for local projections and clarified that the 'lots to be built' figure refers to vacant developed lots with infrastructure in place.
What happens next: The report provides the district with capacity and planning inputs; staff and board members will use these projections in facility and enrollment planning discussions going forward.