Richland 2 presents early enrollment projections and flags charter-school impact
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Summary
Superintendent Dr. Moore and operations chief Will Anderson outlined draft enrollment projections using cohort-survival methodology and a new charter-school factor; staff warned projections are preliminary and will drive staffing and budget planning.
Superintendent Dr. Moore and Chief of Operations Will Anderson told the Richland School District Two Board of Trustees on Jan. 13 that enrollment projections for 2026–27 are preliminary but essential to staffing and budget planning.
"Enrollment projections are not an exact science," Dr. Moore said, noting new variables this year — particularly charter-school openings — that complicate forecasts. Anderson described the district's main approach as "cohort survival," a method that tracks how many students advance from one grade to the next and combines that with historical enrollment, birth data, housing starts and a newly developed "charter school factor." "Cohort survival... is really how many students matriculate from one grade to the next," Anderson said.
As an example, the presentation used Bethel Hanbury Elementary to show how decline in kindergarten cohorts and the potential movement of students to nearby charters can reduce enrollment and change staffing needs. Anderson said the district's draft model produced an example projected enrollment figure (without charter impacts) and then applied a charter adjustment based on distances to new charter schools, socioeconomic factors and state-provided charter estimates.
District leaders emphasized the preliminary nature of the numbers. "This information is not final and is very preliminary projections," Dr. Moore said, adding that projections will evolve through spring as the district receives more data and the official "day 90" enrollment counts.
Why it matters: enrollment projections determine staffing allocations at each school, inform the district budget and affect state funding that follows students. Board members pressed staff on whether the district is considering all options to maintain enrollment — including expanded program offerings — and staff replied they are evaluating multiple options.
Next steps: staff will continue refining projections, share updated numbers with schools and use the results to inform budget and staffing decisions in the coming months.
