District projects continued enrollment decline and flags Georgia Promise Scholarship as major factor
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Summary
Budget staff projected preliminary enrollment of 34,417 for next year and told the committee that 427 Chatham County families accepted the Georgia Promise Scholarship in fall 2025, a leading contributor to recent enrollment losses and staffing implications for the budget.
Paige Cooley, the district's budget director, briefed the finance committee on enrollment forecasting methods and the district's preliminary projection for next year.
Cooley said district forecasts combine population data, birth rates, local housing developments, principals' observations and a professional demographer's work to model pupil counts used for state funding estimates. Based on current inputs and a conservative scenario for Georgia Promise Scholarship uptake, she presented a preliminary projection of about 34,417 students for the coming year.
The committee heard that Georgia Promise, a state scholarship program created in 2024 that can provide up to $6,500 per eligible student, has had a measurable impact locally: district staff reported 427 accepted recipients in Savannah‑Chatham County as of July 22, 2025. That participation contributed substantially to a drop of roughly 716 students in the district's tenth‑day count compared with the prior year; staff estimated around 400 of those losses related to Promise uptake, with the rest due to lower birth rates and migration.
Board members asked for further work to unpack where students left (private school vs. homeschooling) and whether families that take Promise funds later return to district schools; staff said they are studying the program's effects on both enrollment and student performance and will use the demographer's output to refine planning for staffing and capital needs.
Committee members recommended tighter coordination with local governments for permitting and housing data to improve projections and suggested ramping up school‑level marketing to retain and recruit families. Staff said they will continue refining projections with the demographer's input and share findings with the board and community.