Thomas Dudley of the Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRI) told the Craven County Board of Education that a recent land-use study and 10-year membership forecast projects continued residential growth that will influence district enrollment. "Residential developments continue to be proposed and planned, at a considerable pace," said Bridal Godfrey, the study author, and the consultants reported about 39 developments representing a little over 4,000 additional homes concentrated around New Bern.

The consultants said their forecast uses two primary inputs: resident live births as a leading indicator for kindergarten cohorts and current membership momentum as students progress through grades. Dudley said the forecast shows declines in some cohorts but that those declines are “heavily mitigated by the high degree of residential growth that you're experiencing,” and he highlighted a slow elementary-level rebound as new families move into the district.

ITRI displayed an "out-of-capacity" table for elementary schools that pairs school-by-school capacity (sourced to a 2019 Smith‒Senate facilities report) with current average daily membership and forecasted enrollment. Dudley explained the table’s color-coded utilization: "if you see a cell that's red, that indicates an overcrowded school based on the capacity and enrollment data that we have." Board members questioned why the consultants used a particular Smith‒Senate chart from pages 60–64 of the 2019 report; Godfrey said they used the capacity numbers provided in that study and offered to update charts if the board preferred alternative capacity assumptions.

Board members pressed consultants on methodological choices, including whether builds were counted by building permits or by rezoning/subdivision approvals. Godfrey said the inventory is based on rezonings and subdivision plans and that the team consults local planning offices for estimated buildout timelines. The presenters acknowledged uncertainty where approved developments have not yet begun construction and said their timelines account for that variability.

Chair Lee Kirkman asked ITRI to return in February with scenarios exploring possible transitions for Tucker Creek Middle School, Havelock Middle School and (as stated in the presentation) Gram(a) May Barton, including where students would be reassigned and the transportation implications. The consultants agreed to follow up and to review capacity assumptions on request.

The presentation closed with an invitation for additional questions and a commitment from ITRI/ORED to provide alternate capacity scenarios and transition analyses on the board’s timeline.