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ITRI presents land-use study to Craven County Board, finds 39 pending developments and mixed enrollment trends
Summary
ITRI/ORED told the Craven County Board that roughly 39 pending residential developments (about 4,000 homes) around New Bern will shape school enrollment; consultants said elementary enrollment should slowly rebound while capacity calculations rely on 2019 Smith‒Senate figures and invited the board to request alternate scenarios.
Thomas Dudley of the Institute for Transportation Research and Education (ITRI) told the Craven County Board of Education that a recent land-use study and 10-year membership forecast projects continued residential growth that will influence district enrollment. "Residential developments continue to be proposed and planned, at a considerable pace," said Bridal Godfrey, the study author, and the consultants reported about 39 developments representing a little over 4,000 additional homes concentrated around New Bern.
The consultants said their forecast uses two primary inputs: resident live births as a leading indicator for kindergarten cohorts and current…
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