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Demographer: Westfield schools need about 1,500–1,700 annual home turnovers to stabilize enrollment
Summary
At a joint city–school session, demographer Dr. Jerry McKibben warned that a persistent deficit of preschool‑age children means Westfield will need substantially more home sales or new construction each year—McKibben put a conservative target at about 1,500 homes and a realistic target at about 1,700—to avoid long‑term enrollment decline.
At a joint meeting of city and school leaders, demographer Dr. Jerry McKibben told officials that Westfield’s schools face a persistent shortfall in preschool‑age children that must be filled before elementary enrollment can grow.
McKibben, who said his office builds population forecasts from census data, local building permits and address‑level housing information, distinguished his two‑step forecasting approach from simpler projections: "A forecast is different. It's a 2 step procedure... The results of that population forecast drives the enrollment forecast." He told the room the model assumes several key variables…
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