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MPS committee reviews new cohort-based enrollment tool as district counts more than 10,000 fewer students over 15 years
Summary
Milwaukee Public Schools officials and consultants from Formative presented a cohort-based enrollment-projection tool designed to produce school-level forecasts to inform FY2027 budgets. Directors and public commenters pressed administrators on whether the model accounts for school choice and local openings; staff said Phase I excludes choice data and projections will be used to set school budgets.
A Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) committee heard on an enrollment-projection tool developed with consulting firm Formative and was told the district has lost more than 10,000 students over the last 15 years, a decline that administrators and consultants said makes accurate forecasting essential for budgeting and equitable resource allocation.
Superintendent Bridal Caselli introduced Formative representatives Mary Dillman and Jamie Racinelli, saying the district currently lacks a demographer and needs dependable projections "to have really strong budgets and dependable budgets that you can trust." Racinelli said the cohort-based tool was built specifically for MPS and will produce school-level reports and self-service tools for principals and budget staff.
Formative presented recent trends they said drive the forecasts: total enrollment has fallen by more than 10,000 students over 15 years (and by roughly 10,000 students or about 15% over nine years), with a drop of about 1,200 students (roughly 2%) going into the most…
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