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Analysts flag data gaps and corporate refund volatility as key risks to state forecast
Summary
Cravat and committee members flagged national data gaps (missing CPI components) and concentrated corporate refunds as the principal risks to Vermont’s otherwise stable revenue outlook, and said the office will dig further into refund patterns and alternative measures.
At the Jan. 16 briefing, Tom Cravat highlighted two areas that could change the current near‑stable forecast: gaps in national statistical series and concentrated corporate refund activity.
On national data, Cravat said recent discontinuities and delays in federal series — notably the CPI shelter component — make some public measures less reliable…
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