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Legislative fiscal staff unveil new Medicaid forecasting model to check agency estimates
Summary
Legislative Fiscal Division staff presented a rebuilt, data‑driven biennial Medicaid forecasting model to the House Human Services Committee, describing new data sources, model selection methods and Power BI visualizations intended to improve projection accuracy for a roughly $5.1 billion portion of the state budget.
Josh Pollet of the Legislative Fiscal Division introduced a presentation to the House Human Services Committee on the division’s rebuilt biennial Medicaid forecasting model. The presentation, delivered by a Fiscal Division analyst identified in the hearing as Ms. Hamilton, framed the model as a legislative check on the executive branch’s Medicaid budget request and said the program accounts for about $5,100,000,000 of the state budget.
Ms. Hamilton said the new model was reconstructed from the ground up to incorporate Medicaid expansion, reduce manual adjustments and scale to roughly 200 different provider time series. “We use this to forecast those short term biannual Medicaid expenditures for the legislature,” she said, describing the model as data‑driven,…
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