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PUC debate over design-day methods: data window, probability and model validation
Summary
At the hearing, company witnesses defended their long historical dataset and 1-in-30 design-day method while intervenors pressed sensitivities that use only 2000-present data and a 1-in-25 threshold; company agreed to propose correlation data comparing modeled vs observed flows for near-design cold events.
A technical portion of the Jan. 20 Public Utilities Commission hearing focused on how Public Service calculates design-day temperatures and validates its hydraulic models.
Company witness Grace Jones explained that the utility uses a long historical temperature dataset (in the record reaching back to 1950) and recalculates design-day probabilities annually. Counsel for Conservation Advocates ran a sensitivity removing pre-2000 data and…
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