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OMB: Preliminary November numbers show general fund near forecast, $381M estimated ending balance
Summary
Office of Management and Budget fiscal analyst Joe Morissette told the Budget Section that preliminary November figures put the biennial ending balance at about $381 million and revenues roughly $20 million below forecast; he said these are preliminary and OMB will issue a revised forecast in February–March.
Joe Morissette of the Office of Management and Budget told the Budget Section the state’s preliminary November figures show a $381,000,000 estimated ending balance for the biennium, roughly $155,000,000 higher than the estimate at the end of the last legislative session.
Morissette said preliminary revenues through November are about $20,000,000 below the official forecast — a variance of less than 2% — and that OMB is treating the shortfall as temporary for the purposes of the current projection. "These are preliminary numbers," he said, adding that the month of November closes later in OMB’s accounting and that final November results may change modestly.
He reviewed selected special funds: the budget stabilization fund balance (August data) was about $958,000,000, roughly $20,000,000 above the statutory 15% requirement; the legacy fund and the strategic investment and improvements fund (SIF) were presented using the most recent August–September balances available. Morissette said the SIF is "nearly all committed" and that royalty and oil-tax allocations may add funds later in the biennium.
Morissette pointed to specific revenue drivers: sales tax collections — which account for roughly half of general fund revenue — were close to forecast, though November processing timing (month-end on a weekend) likely shifted some receipts into December. He also said individual income estimated payments were running about $24,000,000 below the biennial forecast and that recent federal tax changes could reduce state collections when returns are filed in April.
Why it matters: the reported balances and preliminary variances frame agency budget guidance for the executive budget process and the forecast OMB will develop with external consultants in February–March.
What’s next: OMB plans a formal forecast update in the spring as it meets with Moody’s and the OMB advisory council and will circulate final November revenue figures when available.
