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State budget office reports preliminary figures showing modest surplus and mixed revenue signals
Summary
Budget staff reported a finalized beginning balance of about $1.329 billion and preliminary projections that could leave the biennium with roughly $382 million, while November revenues were about $20 million below forecast with individual income tax down ~15%.
Chairman Heggert called the Government Finance Committee to order and Joe Morrissette of the state budget office presented an updated look at the general fund and special funds.
Morrissette said the biennium began with a finalized beginning balance of roughly $1.329 billion—about $176 million higher than estimates during the legislative session—and that, after accounting for updated revenues, the state could finish the biennium with an ending balance near $382 million. "That number is still higher than the number that was in the legislative budget as you finished work during the last session," Morrissette said.
He cautioned the figures are preliminary because November closes on Dec. 10 to allow end-of-month transactions to post. On revenues, Morrissette reported the state is about $20 million below forecast year-to-date—less than 2% of the total forecast—and noted differences across tax types. "Sales tax was a bit below forecast for the month…we're tracking below by just a little bit, less than 2%," he said. He identified individual income tax as the most concerning variance, noting it was down about 15% from forecast and attributing much of that shortfall to federal tax-law changes that will shift state taxable income.
Morrissette also reviewed special funds. The Budget Stabilization Fund was about $958 million—roughly $20 million above the statutory 15% cap and therefore likely to be transferred to the general fund at fiscal year-end. He reported the Legacy Fund balance at roughly $12.8 billion (adjusted for recent oil allocations) and said the Strategic Investment Fund held about $1.2 billion in September with about $1.195 billion already committed or obligated.
Committee members asked for historical context on turnbacks and other revenue adjustments; Morrissette agreed to provide historical “turnback” data at a future meeting. The presentation closed with Morrissette reiterating that the office will issue an updated forecast in February–March that will reflect more current economic and federal policy developments.
The committee moved next to other agenda items.
