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Expert: Census evaluation methods explain why young children were most likely missed in 2020
Summary
At a Dec. 8 Massachusetts Senate Committee hearing, demographer Joseph Salvo told senators nationwide methods used to assess the 2020 census (demographic analysis and the post‑enumeration survey) show young children had the largest net undercount and identified causes including COVID timing, proxy responses and data‑quality issues with administrative records.
Joseph Salvo, a senior adviser at the National Conference on Citizenship, told the Massachusetts Senate Committee on the Census on Dec. 8 that two independent methods the Census Bureau uses to judge count completeness — demographic analysis (DA) and the post‑enumeration survey (PES) — point to systematic problems in 2020 that produced uneven undercounts and overcounts.
Salvo said DA, which sums historical birth and death records with estimates of international migration and Medicare‑enrolled populations, provides a national “litmus test” of whether the census undercounted or overcounted the U.S. population. "Demographic analysis is literally an independent way of coming up with the national population," he said. He explained DA is limited to national estimates for most groups because migration and…
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