Khamenei blames protesters and U.S.; analysts say Iran’s leadership is preparing for post-Khamenei transition

Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei publicly blamed protest participants and the United States for casualties during recent mass demonstrations, the Utro program reported on Jan. 19, citing Associated Press coverage.

The program interviewed Sergey Danilov, deputy director of the Center for Middle East Studies, who said Khamenei’s framing aims to present the unrest as foreign-instigated and that the leadership is preparing for eventual succession. Danilov told the program that internal elite groups are forming coalitions and that security forces will be the decisive resource in any post‑Khamenei contest for power.

Danilov said recent demonstrations began in late December and involved thousands of people in dozens of cities who protested inflation, currency collapse and economic hardships. He described hospitals overwhelmed with wounded, including people with gunshot wounds, and said human-rights groups estimate more than 3,000 deaths during the protests, with some sources (reported by Reuters) suggesting higher figures.

Asked whether the protests indicate the regime has already lost control, Danilov said they were "temporarily suppressed" but that structural economic and political problems persist and will keep pressure on the ruling establishment. He warned that different factions inside Iran’s security and political apparatus are preparing for a future transition, and outlined two possible paths: managed transformation that preserves the basic regime structure or intensified repression.

The program presented Danilov’s views as analysis; no official Iranian response to those characterizations was included in the broadcast.