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Consensus panel adopts lower revenue forecasts after updated economic data and policy changes
Summary
Michigan's January Consensus Revenue Estimating Conference adopted updated general fund and school aid fund forecasts that reflect recent tax law changes and incoming data; staff reported a roughly $800 million reduction for FY26 and an $1.1 billion reduction for FY27 compared with the May consensus.
Michigan revenue officials on Jan. 15 adopted a revised set of revenue forecasts that put combined general fund and school aid fund receipts below the May 2025 consensus as agencies incorporated recent tax policy changes and newer economic data.
The conference, convened under MCL 18.1367 b, heard presentations from the University of Michigan’s Research Seminar in Quantitative Economics and fiscal staff from the Senate Fiscal Agency, House Fiscal Agency and the State Treasury before agreeing to the new tables. Staff told the panel that preliminary FY25 collections for five major tax lines trailed the May consensus by about $328 million, and that a set of enacted policy changes (including a motor‑fuel sales tax exemption enacted in the roads package and…
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