Prince William schools weigh $352 million estimate for planned 14th high school as enrollment falls

Prince William County School Board members heard on Jan. 14 from division staff who presented two alternate five‑year capital improvement plans and urged the board to give direction before the FY2027 budget process.

Administration described Scenario A as continuing the previously approved 14th high school and Scenario B as discontinuing that construction and reinvesting the funds in other projects. "You will hear from our team about projected enrollment trends that point to significant declines over the next decade," Doctor McDade said while framing the presentation. Staff said the newly completed design and independent cost reviews produced a much higher estimate for the high school project than earlier pre‑design numbers.

Scott Halsey, facility planning coordinator, presented demographic projections showing a near‑term decline in PK–12 enrollment of roughly 2,981 students over the next five years and noted high‑school cohorts would shrink as larger classes graduate. He said program‑capacity measures — which reflect current usage and specialized programs — show a reduction in available high‑school seats and that systemwide underutilized seats could reach about 12,000 by 2030 and nearly 15,000 by 2035 if trends continue.

Administration said independent construction estimates, certified by outside firms, put the all‑in cost of the 14th high school at about $352,000,000. "When we saw this estimate at 300 almost $350,000,000, we were surprised," Vernon Bach, chief operating officer, told the board, and staff said site conditions (a grade change of roughly 100 feet across the site) drive unusually large site‑work costs. Beavers and Youssef said the project as designed requires an additional roughly $128.2 million in CIP funding beyond prior plans to reach the $352 million estimate.

Financial tradeoffs were a focal point. Shaquille Youssef (chief financial officer) explained that Scenario A would significantly increase the division’s bond issuances and debt service obligations. He said Scenario A would increase the CIP by about $282 million relative to last year’s plan and that Scenario B would yield a much smaller increase or a lower borrowing requirement; the presentation highlighted an approximate $293 million vertical difference between the two scenarios in bond sales over the five‑year window. Staff warned that larger bond sales under Scenario A would represent the highest level of bond issuance in roughly 20 years and could put pressure on county transfer funds that pay debt service.

Board members pressed for more financial and operational detail before taking direction. The chair asked staff to provide the division’s estimates of annual operating costs for a new high school and for a clearer per‑seat comparison with regional benchmarks at a future meeting. Several board members noted that, even if the board discontinues the new high school, it will still face substantial high‑school redistricting because of projected capacity imbalances; the chair observed that redistricting and other changes could affect workforce needs.

There was no formal vote on either scenario at the work session. Staff laid out the next steps and a timeline: the superintendent’s proposed FY2027 budget and CIP will be presented to the board in early February, with a public meeting Feb. 9, a public hearing Feb. 18, final board markup March 11 and submission to the Board of County Supervisors March 18.

The board’s decision on Scenario A or B will shape whether the division proceeds with the 14th high school as designed, or discontinues that new construction and directs the CIP toward renovations, sustainability and other programmatic facility investments.