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Draft greenhouse‑gas inventory shows 28% decline since 2005; transportation now largest share
Summary
A draft inventory from the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments shows Fairfax County’s 2023 emissions are about 4 million metric tons CO2e lower than 2005 (a 28% drop), with transportation accounting for roughly 49% of current emissions; refrigerants and fugitive emissions rose and data centers were included for the first time.
County staff briefed the Environmental Committee on a draft greenhouse‑gas inventory prepared by the Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments (COG), highlighting long-term reductions as well as recent rebounds in emissions.
"The most recent analysis by COG is for 2023 and it's 4,000,000 metric tons lower, a 28% reduction from 2005," John Morrill, OEEC director, said. He noted that transportation's relative contribution to emissions has grown to roughly 49 percent and that emissions rose slightly between 2020 and 2023 after a pandemic-related dip in 2020.
Morrill emphasized that the inventory counts emissions in metric tons of carbon dioxide equivalent and, for the first time in COG's work, includes an estimate of data-center energy use and emissions. He said data centers account for less than 10 percent of county electricity use and about 2 percent of county emissions in the draft.
Staff also reported continued declines in overall electricity consumption: county electricity use in 2023 was about 10 percent lower than in 2015, a trend Morrill attributed to energy-efficiency improvements. Commercial and residential building emissions showed steady declines driven by cleaner electricity and efficiency gains. By contrast, fugitive emissions from refrigerants rose and were estimated to account for about 7 percent of county emissions in 2023, a larger share than in earlier years.
Supervisors asked whether shifting to electric vehicles simply moves emissions to power plants; staff answered that the inventory counts electricity‑sector emissions at power plants and that the grid has been getting cleaner, which reduces lifecycle emissions for EVs compared with gasoline vehicles. Morrill said OEEC will publish a more detailed analysis alongside COG's final inventory in January and will provide CCAP-related results for calendar 2025 in May 2026.
The committee did not take formal action; staff will continue outreach and report more detailed program results to the board in the coming months.
