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District 57 projects K–8 enrollment roughly stable through 2029–30, forecasts 2,046–2,145 students
Summary
An enrollment study presented to the District 57 school board used geocoded birth records and cohort survival ratios to model K–8 enrollment through school year 2029–30 and recommended updates when 2024/2025 data are available.
Dr. Coughran, an enrollment consultant engaged by District 57, told the Board of Education on Oct. 16 that the district’s K–8 enrollment is likely to remain broadly stable through school year 2029–30, with projected totals between about 2,046 and 2,145 students.
The presentation combined two methods: geocoding live-birth records from the Illinois Department of Public Health to kindergarten cohorts and calculating cohort survival ratios from roughly 20,000 district student records to project progression by grade. Dr. Coughran said those methods produced a “high projection” and a “snapshot” projection; he recommended the snapshot and high projection lines as the more credible trends.
The report traced birth counts and enrollments back to 2011, used births through calendar year 2023 to build kindergarten cohorts, and projected total K–8 enrollment through 2029–30. For the two main tabulation areas in the district—Fairview and Lions Park—Dr. Coughran provided separate profiles: Fairview’s resident enrollments show an upward trend under the snapshot/high scenarios, while Lions Park resident enrollments trended slightly downward and were projected to decline through 2028 before edging up in 2029–30.
Board members asked whether the district’s move to full‑day kindergarten would change the projections. Dr. Coughran said full‑day kindergarten would likely increase the birth‑to‑kindergarten capture rate (the B→K cohort survival ratio) and reduce the apparent jump between kindergarten and first grade; under current snapshot ratios he reported a B→K capture of roughly 67 percent in one tabulation area and a K→1 ratio that caused first‑grade classes to be about 37 percent larger than the preceding kindergarten class in that area. He recommended keeping the projection model current and re-running it using 2025 student address records and 2024 birth data when available to refine the 2029–30 outlook.
Dr. Coughran also noted roughly 15–20 students over the past decade who live outside district boundaries and said the total enrollment projections include an allowance for those out‑of‑district residents. Board members discussed options to address enrollment imbalances between schools, including boundary adjustments and use of flexible classroom spaces planned in recent construction designs. District administrators said the new Lincoln Middle School, scheduled to open in August (year not specified in the presentation), has capacity sufficient for the conservative projections discussed.
Dr. Coughran closed by recommending that the district geocode 2025 student addresses to compare actual 2025 enrollments with the model and, when 2024 birth data become available, extend the birth‑based projection to 2030–31.
The presentation generated extended discussion on cohort survival ratios, the effects of full‑day kindergarten on capture rates and downstream grade sizes, and the use of boundary mapping to balance enrollments if needed. Board members asked for continued monitoring and for administration to return with fall assessment data and any implications for space planning.
