District 57 projects roughly 2,046–2,145 K–8 students by 2029–30; full‑day kindergarten likely to change capture rates

Dr. John Coughran, the consultant hired to update District 57’s enrollment model, told the school board on Oct. 16 that a projection based on live birth records and cohort‑survival ratios shows total K–8 enrollment likely will range between 2,046 and 2,145 students in 2029–30.

The study extended last year’s birth‑to‑kindergarten method through grade 8 by geocoding about 20,000 student records and calculating cohort survival ratios to project enrollments. Dr. Coughran said using both birth data from the Illinois Department of Public Health and historical enrollment yields a set of projection series; he and the district favored the snapshot and high‑projection lines as the most credible trends.

Why it matters: the projection and the distribution of students across the district affect capacity planning for the new Lincoln Middle School and additions at Westbrook and guide discussions about boundary adjustments or other operational responses.

Key findings and details: - District total: snapshot/high projection range is about 2,046–2,145 K–8 students in 2029–30. - Fairview tabulation area: snapshot projections suggest a likely range of about 507–601 students in 2029–30; recent trends in Fairview show an upswing attributed to births and resident enrollments in 2023–24. - Lions Park tabulation area: projections show a modest decline through 2028 with a slight uptick in 2029–30; snapshot mid series estimates about 339–357 students in 2029–30 for grades 2–5. - Lincoln (grades 6–8): projections are largely stable with only a slight upward trend in some series; middle school enrollments were not materially affected by COVID, Coughran said.

Cohort capture and kindergarten considerations: Coughran highlighted cohort survival ratios in the report: for one tabulation area the birth‑to‑kindergarten (B→K) snapshot ratio was about 0.669 (roughly 67 percent), while the kindergarten‑to‑first‑grade (K→1) ratio for a recent year was about 1.37 — meaning first‑grade class size was 37 percent larger than the preceding kindergarten class. Coughran said those differences imply many children enter the district after kindergarten.

Board members asked whether full‑day kindergarten could raise the B→K capture rate and produce an influx of students. Coughran said he expects B→K to rise with full‑day kindergarten and that, correspondingly, K→1 ratios could fall; he recommended keeping the model current so the district can anticipate any change in capture rates rather than be surprised by it.

Options and next steps: Coughran recommended geocoding and adding 2025 student address records and using 2024 birth counts when they become available to update projections. He also described the district’s ability to model boundary shifts by reassigning small neighborhoods between tabulation areas to explore impacts by grade.

Context and caveats: Coughran noted projection uncertainty grows farther into the future and called for periodic updates. He said the model incorporates both birth data and cohort survival ratios derived from up to five years of historical enrollments and that out‑of‑district resident students (about 15–20 in recent years) are included separately in the total projection.

The board took no final action on boundaries or program placement during the meeting; the presentation was framed as information to guide future planning.