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Economist presents Solano County's 2024 Index showing recovery but uneven sector growth
Summary
Dr. Robert Eiler presented Solano County's annual Index of Economic and Community Progress, showing recovery since the pandemic with strong gains in logistics and services but flatter growth in construction, farming employment and tech sectors; population forecasts show future growth but 2024 was roughly flat.
Solano County officials heard an annual economic index report from Dr. Robert Eiler, an economist affiliated with Sonoma State University, who presented indicators for employment, industry trends, housing, agriculture and social equity.
Eiler told supervisors that overall employment in the county recovered after the pandemic but growth has flattened in the last 12 months, and that industrial shifts continue to favor logistics and warehousing and many service sectors. "Logistics of warehousing is the real pop on that graph," he said, summarizing five-year industry changes. Construction and some farm employment have not yet fully recovered, he added.
Eiler noted a strong 2023 rebound in farm values that he expected to be reflected in forthcoming 2024 federal data. He also highlighted concerns for housing: many regional forecasters expect flat or modestly negative median price changes in the short term because of higher borrowing and construction costs, though Solano County's five-year median home-price gain remained substantial.
Social equity metrics in the index showed mixed results: median household income slipped in inflation-adjusted terms at some points in the 2020'23 window, poverty rates were relatively stable and homeownership among communities of color improved since 2020 but softened in a recent year.
Eiler told the board that population projections from the California Department of Finance show stronger growth for Solano County later in the decade, noting that the county's location between the Bay Area and Sacramento could make it attractive to residents and firms.
Supervisors asked follow-up questions about workforce-development strategies, the potential role of ag-tech and life-science growth near Vacaville and Dixon, and the effect of tariffs and inflation on construction costs and wages. Eiler recommended aligning economic and workforce development efforts to local industry strengths and to monitor housing and inflation trends.
No formal board action was required; staff posted the index to the county website for public reference.
