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Economic indicators: Solano County shows recovery and mixed sector growth; forecasters flag housing and construction headwinds
Summary
An annual economic index presentation to the Board of Supervisors highlighted recovery in jobs since the pandemic, strength in logistics and warehousing, and a rebound in farm values. Presenters warned of national and regional headwinds for housing and construction and noted a Department of Finance projection of population growth for Solano County.
Solano County received its annual Index of Economic and Community Progress on June 24, a presentation prepared by Dr. Robert Eiler of Economic Forensics and Analytics and delivered through the county administrator’s office. The index reviews labor markets, industrial composition, housing trends, small‑business counts and social equity indicators.
Key takeaways from Dr. Eiler’s presentation: - Labor and jobs: Employment has recovered since the pandemic and in some categories exceeds pre‑pandemic levels, with logistics/warehousing and certain services showing the largest gains. Construction and some agricultural employment remain in recovery. Analysts noted that while Solano County recovered, the past 12 months showed flattening in employment growth. - Industry mix: Transportation, warehousing and logistics contributed materially to local growth; manufacturing and health care remain important large employers. The growth in warehousing raises questions about jobs per square foot and local workforce opportunities. - Small business and farms: Solano County has a large share of smaller employers; the 2023 farm‑value data showed a rebound for county agriculture, with processed tomatoes, almonds and wine grapes as significant commodities. Dr. Eiler cautioned the wine sector faces structural changes that could affect medium‑term returns. - Housing and population: The five‑year median home‑price growth remains strong (index showed a 27.4% five‑year increase through March 2025), but forecasters have grown more pessimistic about near‑term price growth because of higher construction costs and interest‑rate impacts. The Department of Finance population forecast included a robust projected increase for Solano County through 2030 and beyond, though the 2024 vintaged estimate was essentially flat. - Social equity: The index included analysis of median household income, poverty rates and homeownership for communities of color. Inflationary impacts reduced real median income gains in recent years; African‑American households showed less mobility over the index period.
Board members asked about workforce development, the role of automation in warehousing, and how county economic development should balance logistics growth with higher‑wage, higher‑skill industries. Dr. Eiler suggested focusing on regional assets such as ag‑tech opportunities between Vacaville and Davis and using workforce development to connect local residents to new jobs.
Ending: The index will be posted to the county website; staff and the board indicated interest in using the findings to guide economic and workforce development priorities and grant applications.
