New Solano County economic index: labor and logistics recovered after the pandemic, farms rebounded in 2023, housing forecast flat

Dr. Robert Eiler, an economist at Sonoma State University and president of Economic Forensics and Analytics, presented Solano County’s annual index of economic and community indicators to the Board of Supervisors.

Major findings - Employment and labor: Labor force and employment in Solano County recovered from pandemic contractions and showed expansion into early 2024, but growth flattened during 2024–2025. Logistics/warehousing and health care were notable sources of job growth; construction and farm employment have lagged recovery in some subsectors. - Industry mix: Over a five‑year window logistics and warehousing showed the biggest gains. Manufacturing and health care remain strengths for large employers, while information/tech and wholesale employment have fallen compared with pre‑pandemic levels. - Small business and farms: About 48% of Solano employment in 2022 was in businesses with 20 or fewer employees; 2023 data showed a strong rebound in farm values (supported by federal BEA data). Wine‑grape industry dynamics and possible consolidation were flagged as a matter to watch. - Housing and population: The county’s median home price was reported at about $602,000 at the end of the prior year, with five‑year median price growth of roughly 27.4%. Eiler presented a near‑term flat price forecast (Solano median -3.2% in short‑term projections) and a regional concern that higher interest rates and rising construction costs may reduce new housing starts. County population estimates for 2024 were essentially flat; Department of Finance forecasts show stronger projected growth after 2024 through 2030.

Supervisors’ questions and implications Supervisors asked about economic development opportunities, especially ag‑tech and life‑science spillovers in areas like Dixon and Vacaville near UC Davis. Eiler suggested Solano County could leverage affordable housing and corridor access to attract advanced manufacturing, ag‑tech and life‑science activity, but cautioned that tariffs, global conflict and construction costs are downside risks.

Quote “These indicators, especially given the current environment, are helpful to your decision making,” Dr. Robert Eiler said. “Solano County has recovered from the pandemic but faces a mixed bag of headwinds and opportunities.”

Next steps Staff posted the full index and said the report will be available on the county website; the board discussed aligning economic and workforce development strategies to help residents benefit from local job growth.