Sentencing Commission warns Kansas could need about 2,530 additional prison beds over 10 years

Scott Schultz, executive director of the Kansas Sentencing Commission, briefed the Senate Ways and Means Committee on sentencing grids, bed'space impacts, and the Commission's projection methodology.

Schultz described the Commission's data sources (KBI arrest data, KDOC data, OJA data) and said the office produces a bed'space impact box for most criminal bills that summarizes estimated prison impacts. He walked members through the non'drug and drug sentencing grids, explaining that criminal history and offense severity determine presumptive prison or probation outcomes and that the drug grid is quantity'based.

On projections, Schultz said the Commission is required by statute to prepare prison population projections each summer and that it uses a 10'year projection model that factors prior years' trends, probation and parole returns, sentencing grids, and assumptions provided by KDOC. He reported a 10'year projected increase of 20.6 percent in the prison population, which he said is "the equivalent of 2,530 beds." He warned that incremental increases in penalties across bills have a stacking effect that lengthens average time served and therefore increases bed needs.

Schultz defended the Commission's model as historically accurate within a modest error bound, noting the office usually expects about a 5 percent variance and that last year's model performed well. He also described the Commission's Senate Bill 123 program, an 18'month community'based substance use disorder treatment program ordered by courts that the Commission helps fund; he said the program pays out roughly $12'$15 million annually to treatment providers.

He told senators the Commission has converted its annual report into a public dashboard with county'level views and expects to introduce legislation in coming weeks to make sentencing journal entries electronic and mandatory, which would improve data availability.

Committee members probed the model's horizon and accuracy; Schultz reiterated that the projections are 10'year models refreshed annually and said the office lacks resources to do more sophisticated causal statistical work linking specific programs to recidivism outcomes. Several senators raised staffing and private'prison cost questions; the Commission and KDOC respondents said staffing needs depend on custody levels and facility design.

The Commission also announced a multi'year comprehensive review of the Sentencing Guidelines Act to identify pain points and possible statutory changes, with potential legislative requests to follow.

Next procedural step: Commission and KDOC responses will inform upcoming committee work on criminal justice'related bills and budget considerations.