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Education consensus estimates show mixed headcount and weightings; state aid dips in near term
Summary
KLRD reported fall consensus education estimates showing a small decline in foundation aid in FY26–FY27 driven by lower headcount and stable weightings, while FY28 projections rise under current school‑finance law because weightings are expected to increase.
Jennifer Light, senior fiscal analyst with KLRD, briefed the Committee on Appropriations on the fall 2025 education consensus estimate. Light said the document provides estimates for FY26, FY27 and FY28 and assumes the school‑finance formula continues unchanged into FY28.
Light reported per‑pupil base aid for FY26 at $5,615 and explained FY27 and FY28 amounts incorporate a CPI‑U three‑year average for calculations. She said state foundation aid is estimated at $3.8 billion for FY26 (including $2.76 billion SGF) and $3.9 billion for FY27 (including $2.85 billion SGF), reflecting decreases driven by anticipated declines in headcount and weighted full‑time equivalents (FTEs).
On special education, Light said FY27 and FY28 are estimated at $611,000,000 and that the excess‑cost percentages are projected at 64.6% for FY27 and 61.5% for FY28; the consensus group leaves special‑education appropriations flat in out years unless the Legislature provides an explicit increase. Capital outlay and capital‑improvement estimates were presented, and KPERS contribution changes were reflected in adjusted estimates.
During questions, committee members asked why FY28 estimates rise while some metrics fall. Light explained that the FY28 projection is an initial out‑year estimate using standard assumptions, in which headcount may decline but the share of students requiring higher weightings can increase — a factor that raises projected costs. She offered to discuss KPERS, weighted‑FTE mechanics and other details with committee members individually or in follow‑up responses.
Light concluded by reminding members the school‑finance formula will be considered for renewal and that FY28 estimates represent a baseline under current law.
