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Agency technical report: low recharge this year; storage and creek flows reported
Summary
Agency staff reported low recharge for the water year with ridge-top precipitation at 14.92 inches and valley floor at 8.77 inches; the Key Well peaked April 6 and current levels were discussed, alongside surface flow measurements and an ENSO-neutral seasonal outlook.
At the April 24 meeting Jordan delivered a technical basin conditions report, saying the winter was "short or a long summer" and that recharge this water year has been limited. Jordan reported 14.92 inches on the ridge top and 8.77 inches on the valley floor year-to-date.
Jordan said the Key Well peaked at 99.77 feet on April 6 and reported a current reading of 103.23 feet, which staff characterized as roughly 80% of storage capacity, or about 64,000 acre-feet. He cautioned that recharge this spring is unlikely to substantially change the downward trend on the hydrograph.
Surface flows were summarized: Gridley Creek about 0.04 cubic feet per second (CFS), Reeves 0.16 CFS, Stewart (Bronco/Montgomery Channel) about 0.46 CFS, and main San Antonio Creek service flow about 4.18 CFS; total inflow was reported at about 0.48 CFS and outflow about 4.64 CFS, with purchased-system flow contributing significantly to outflow.
Jordan cited NOAA outlooks indicating ENSO-neutral conditions and slightly warmer-than-average temperatures for May–July, meaning average precipitation is most likely rather than an El Niño or La Niña pattern.
Board members asked whether several dry years could return basin conditions to earlier low points; Jordan compared the pattern to past multi-year dry periods and estimated a multi-year buffer under current reduced pumping rates but emphasized substantial uncertainty.
