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PWCS projects focus on renovations and targeted capacity as enrollment projections decline
Summary
Prince William County Schools staff told the Planning Commission the division’s enrollment model now projects a decline of about 3,700 students by the 2029–30 school year and outlined a FY26–30 capital program prioritizing renovations, HVAC replacements, solar, and a small set of new and replacement schools to relieve overcrowding.
Prince William County Schools officials presented the division’s proposed FY26–30 Capital Improvement Program to the Planning Commission, saying the district’s enrollment model now expects a decrease of about 3,700 K–12 students by the 2029–30 school year.
“If all other variables were held constant…our K–12 enrollment would decrease,” Dr. Cartlidge said as she described demographic drivers such as falling birth rates and selective migration to other metros. Staff explained they have moved from a top‑down to a bottom‑up projection model that factors in housing pipeline data, including developments not yet rezoned, to estimate student yields over multiple years.
Facilities staff outlined the CIP’s mix of projects: an Occoquan…
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