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Committee hears FY27–28 budget kickoff and upbeat but uncertain revenue forecast
Summary
OCO staff outlined the mayoral budget timeline and updated revenue forecasts for the OCO fund, noting improved current-year projections ("north of $360 million") and optimistic two-year estimates but highlighted litigation and policy risks.
Committee staff walked members through the city budget calendar for the coming two fiscal years and presented updated revenue projections for the Our City Our Home (OCO) fund.
Radhika (OCO staff) explained the timeline: departments submit proposals in February, the mayor proposes a budget on June 1, and the Board of Supervisors and the mayor negotiate amendments in June–July. She said the controller’s midyear revenue update shows the current-year OCO projection has increased to "north of $360,000,000," with budget-year projections of about $372 million and roughly $390 million in the second year. Radhika noted the business-tax restructuring (Proposition M) was factored into projections but that the longer-term outcome remains uncertain and that ongoing litigation risk and state/federal policy changes could affect receipts.
Committee members asked for clarity on how the business tax restructuring will affect revenue and for more digestible year-over-year comparisons of spending priorities. Radhika and staff said analysts will refine projections as new data arrive and that the committee will see department submissions at the February meeting and a March deep-dive to inform committee recommendations.
The presentation framed the updated projection as encouraging but provisional: staff repeatedly cautioned that exact revenue levels will depend on litigation outcomes and how the restructured business tax performs once fully implemented.
