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Prince William County Schools unveil redesigned enrollment model and public planning portal
Summary
Prince William County Schools described a redesigned cohort‑survival enrollment model, a public planning portal and a residential impact‑statement dashboard designed to improve redistricting, CIP planning and project reviews. Officials said the model projects a roughly 3,700‑student decline over five years.
Prince William County Schools told the Planning Commission on July 16 that it has rebuilt its enrollment forecasting model and launched public online tools to make impact statements and mapping data more accessible.
Dr. Cartlidge, who leads the division’s planning staff, said the updated model is built on the cohort‑survival method and augmented with neighborhood‑level build‑out scenarios and birth‑record correlations. "The projection model is suggesting that we're going to experience about a 3,700 student decrease over the next 5 years," he said, arguing the redesign reduced recent budget forecasting error from roughly $30 million to about $12 million.
The division’s…
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